2025 NBA Finals Odds and Predictions: Best Bets for Pacers vs. Thunder Game 1
The 2025 NBA Finals kicked off on Thursday night, and the odds are not in favor of a surprise series. The Oklahoma City Thunder are currently favored at -700 (previously -800 at BetMGM), while the Indiana Pacers are underdogs at +500. Since 1969, there have been 16 NBA Finals where the underdog had +250 or worse odds, and only the 2004 Detroit Pistons (+500 vs. Los Angeles Lakers) won the series outright, according to Sports Odds History. The Oklahoma City Thunder finished the regular season with a 68-14 record and were the top seed in the Western Conference. They were also a cash cow for bettors, compiling a 55-23-4 mark against the spread, the best ATS mark for any team in the past 35 seasons. However, in the postseason, they have struggled ATS, going just 7-9 ATS. On the other hand, the Indiana Pacers have been one of the NBA's best teams since January 1 and made it to their first Finals since 2000 by beating the Milwaukee Bucks as a favorite and the Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks as series underdogs. Handicappers Michael Fiddle, Jason Logan, and Jon Metler shared their thoughts on the series and Game 1 best bets for Yahoo Sports: Fiddle believes it's hard to find much value betting Oklahoma City in the series or game to game. The market is shading towards Indiana, and he's lucky to have some Thunder futures because it does feel a bit priced out now. He likes Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win MVP instead of OKC series betting because his usage rate is so high. Fiddle also believes Tyrese Haliburton will have to be a scorer for the Pacers to have a chance and likes the over in Game 1, with his model predicting 231.9 points. He also notes that Myles Turner should have decent volume in props-wise. Logan thinks Lu Dort will draw the key assignment of slowing down Haliburton in the NBA Finals. The burly shooting guard will try to get the ball out of Haliburton’s hands, and with the Pacers point guard a primary passer, it should put Dort in good position to crash the boards. Dort's advanced stats show 7.6 rebounding chances in the playoffs, with that metric jumping to 8.2 in the conference finals. He averaged 3.6 boards against Minnesota while checking scorer Anthony Edwards and snatched four or more rebounds in three of the four final games of the WCF. Player models for Game 1 of the NBA Finals have Dort pegged between 4.1 and 5.2 rebounds versus Indiana. During the two regular season run-ins with the Pacers, Dort recorded five and seven boards in OKC victories. Metler thinks that at first glance, 33.5 points looks like a high number for SGA – especially with the Thunder sitting as 9.5-point favorites in Game 1. But for SGA, this total still feels a touch too low. Overall, it seems like a close series with both teams having their strengths and weaknesses. The odds may not be in favor of a surprise winner, but anything can happen in the NBA Finals.
