Is Silver on the Way to a New High?

A May 27, 2025, Barchart article on silver, I concluded with:

With silver over the $32 per ounce level, the critical upside target is the $37.58 technical resistance level. Silver’s relative value versus gold, the fundamental deficit, and the path of least resistance of silver prices since the 2020 low all point to a break above the resistance and a challenge of the 2011 and 1980 highs. However, buying on price weakness will likely remain optimal in the volatile silver market. 

Nearby COMEX silver futures were at the $33.525 per ounce level on May 27. On July 8, my Q2 precious metals report on Barchart highlighted silver’s Q2 bullish key reversal pattern. I concluded with:

I remain bullish on the precious metals sector, but even the most aggressive bull markets rarely move in straight lines. Buying on price corrections has been optimal in gold since the 1999 low, and I expect that trend to continue in gold, silver, platinum, and palladium over the coming months.  

Silver closed Q2 at $35.852 per ounce and was over the $38.50 level on July 18. Silver prices continue to make higher highs in July, with the price rising to a fourteen-year peak.

Silver futures approach the $40 per ounce level

The ten-year monthly COMEX silver futures chart highlights the precious metals’ ascent since the 2020 pandemic-inspired low of $11.64 per ounce.

The chart shows the pattern of higher lows and higher highs that has taken silver futures 240% higher to its latest high of $39.57 on July 14, 2025. Silver has more than tripled in value since its 2020 low.

The next technical targets are around the $50 level

The quarterly continuous futures contract chart indicates that silver has broken out, with its next critical technical targets located around the $50 per ounce level.

As the chart shows, at over $38.50 per ounce, silver is at a fourteen-year high, with the next upside target being the 2011 high of $49.82, which is a gateway to challenging the 1980 all-time high of $50.32 per ounce.

Fundamentals and technicals have aligned

While the technical trend is clearly bullish at a fourteen-year peak and after the Q2 quarterly bullish key reversal pattern, silver’s fundamentals have aligned with the price action. In January 2025, the Silver Institute forecasted a deficit in the silver market, with annual demand at 1.20 billion ounces and demand at 1.05 million ounces. The 150 million-ounce shortfall is the fifth consecutive year that silver demand will outstrip supplies.

When the technicals and fundamentals align, the results can turn parabolic. Silver’s latest peak was just below $40 per ounce, and the technical break with fundamentals winds in the precious metal’s sails could ignite a substantial rally that breaks through the 1980 peak like a hot knife sliced through butter.

Higher silver prices may only exacerbate the fundamental deficit

While the fundamental forecast was for a 150 million ounce shortfall in 2025, it does not account for the potential of skyrocketing investment and speculative demand. Silver is a highly volatile precious metal that could attract a herd of buyers as the price continues its upward trajectory. Therefore, the most bullish factor could be the higher path of least resistance that fuels further rallies.

Silver open interest, the total number of open long and short positions in the silver futures market, rose to a record 229,680 contracts in 2019. At 172,865 contracts on July 17, 2025, the futures arena has lots of upside room as speculative interest increases.

Meanwhile, Mexico remains the leading silver-producing country.

In July, the U.S. administration announced a 50% tariff on copper, after excluding the base metal from the trade barrier in April. Copper futures exploded to a new record peak after the July tariff announcement. If the administration takes a similar stance on silver and the other precious metals, futures prices could take off on the upside. The bottom line is that tariffs and silver’s bullish trend could attract a herd of speculative buying, causing silver prices to rise, perhaps substantially, past the 1980 peak.

Silver is a highly volatile precious metal- A new high will send a significant signal to all markets

Silver is a highly volatile precious metal. While gold’s monthly historical volatility is around 13.28%, silver’s is 23.57%. Silver’s price tends to move more than gold’s price on a percentage basis.

Even the most aggressive bull markets rarely move in straight lines, as periodic corrections are routine events. Since the 2020 bottom, buying silver on price weakness has been optimal, and I expect that to continue.

If silver takes off and the price rises above the 1980 peak, it will further validate the decline in the value of fiat currencies. Gold has already surpassed the euro as the world’s second-leading reserve currency, as central banks continue to increase their gold holdings and validate gold as a reserve asset. Silver has a history dating back thousands of years to pre-Biblical times, as gold’s partner as a means of exchange or as hard money. A new high in silver will only exacerbate the decline in fiat currencies, which derive their value from the full faith and credit of the governments that issue legal tender and sovereign debt securities.

Silver could be on its way to new highs as fundamentals and technicals point to a challenge of the 2011 and 1980 highs. However, the decline in fiat money adds another dimension to silver’s potential in the current economic and geopolitical environment.

On the date of publication, Andrew Hecht did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com