Tropical depression could form later today in southern Gulf as Invest 91L eyes Mexico's east coast

**Coverage of Tropical Depression 2/Future Tropical Storm Barry can be found here.**MIAMI - It is looking more likely that a strengthening low pressure center just off Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is going to develop into at least a tropical depression this weekend – the National Hurricane Center said.

The NHC says recent surface observations, satellite imagery, and radar data from Mexico "suggests a well-defined surface circulation is developing with the area of low pressure located in the Bay of Campeche near the Mexican coastline."

Showers and thunderstorms are becoming better organized in the area, and if trends continue, the storm could reach tropical depression status in the Bay of Campeche within hours, the NHC says. If so, it would be identified as Tropical Depression Two.

As it stands, the agency is now giving 70% odds of tropical development within the next 48 hours. If, by chance, the storm's peak winds managed to reach at least 39 mph, it would become Tropical Storm Barry.

The National Hurricane Center has so far designated the broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Yucatán Peninsula as Invest 91L.

What Is An Invest?

The disturbance is expected to continue to move west-northwest this weekend out into the southern Gulf of America toward eastern Mexico.

"Interests in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system," the NHC said. "Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required for portions of the Mexican Gulf coast as soon as (Saturday) afternoon."

NOAA says Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly reconnaissance flights into the area to watch over the weekend to understand the strength of the disturbance and better understand how powerful the system could become.

Whatever the storm becomes, it's not expected to last long. By Monday, the system should move inland over eastern Mexico, ending any further tropical development though carrying enough moisture to bring heavy rains to portions of Belize, Guatemala and southeastern and eastern Mexico during the next few days. No impacts are expected to the U.S.

"We'll be watching this, and I think the timeline here it really is short," said FOX Weather Meteorologist Jane Minar. "It's probably not going to be 7 days from now. We're really looking through maybe about Monday where we could maybe see a circulation come together."

So far, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually quiet, with the basin’s Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or what is commonly referred to as ACE, sitting at a meager 0.2 units.

ACE is a metric used by forecasters to quantify the strength and duration of tropical cyclones, with greater values indicating stronger, longer-lasting systems.

What Is Accumulated Cyclone Energy (Ace)?

According to data compiled by Colorado State University, the 2025 ACE value is more than 90% below average for the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America.

Original article source: Tropical depression could form later today in southern Gulf as Invest 91L eyes Mexico's east coast