Can a $10,000 Investment in Bitcoin Turn Into $100,000 by 2030?

Key Points

• Bitcoin has grown by 10-fold during earlier five-year periods.

• There are more than a few reasons to suspect that the next five years will be similar.

• That doesn't mean you should discard good and careful investing practices.

• 10 stocks we like better than Bitcoin ›

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has a knack for turning skeptics into storytellers, myself included. Five years ago, a single coin cost as much as a used car, but today it clears six figures. That kind of ascent makes investors wonder whether dropping $10,000 into the crypto today could realistically bloom into $100,000 by 2030.

The question matters because the forces that once pushed Bitcoin north are changing shape. Still, Bitcoin's history reads like a roller coaster's safety disclaimer rather than a guaranteed profit machine. Let's dig into why a 10-fold or perhaps even more remains on the table with this asset, and why a measured approach beats a blind leap.

Demand is running up against finite supply

During the past five years the coin has surged by 1,060%, from about $9,123 to roughly $109,600 (as of July 3), making for a compound annual growth rate just north of 63%. Therefore, even if that pace halves, a 10-fold gain by 2030 is mathematically possible.

The drivers of the coin's value paint a similarly favorable picture.

Demand keeps building, and from key sources like exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

In particular, the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF now pulls in an estimated $187 million in annual fees, surpassing the issuing company's flagship S&P 500 fund, proving that mainstream money is eager to pay for exposure to Bitcoin. Plus, in the week ended June 30 alone, a whopping $2.2 billion flowed into Bitcoin ETFs; the tempo is accelerating here, not slowing.

Furthermore, corporate appetite for holding the asset is rising too, and in multiple forms. Many publicly listed companies like Tesla are now opting to hold Bitcoin directly on their balance sheets, and they may be just the first of many.

Separately, an entirely new class of company is emerging: Bitcoin treasury companies, which only aspire to buy and hold more of the coin as their main business model.

Strategy, the most notable Bitcoin treasury company, just snagged another 4,980 coins, boosting its holdings past 597,000. Other treasury businesses from London to Tokyo are copying that playbook, further shrinking the float available for public trading and bringing in significant capital to compete for the supply that remains.

Meanwhile, the total supply is locked in cement, and the rate of new coins being mined is only going to get slower and slower.

The next halving, projected for late March 2028, will cut new issuance below 0.8% of coins outstanding. With about 94% of all coins already mined, each halving slows supply growth further just as ETFs and Bitcoin treasury companies are building positions.

Put simply, more buyers are chasing fewer coins, and that can send its price upward in a very dramatic fashion, precisely as it has in the past. A 10-fold gain is very possible here, and on a long enough timeline, it is likely to occur.

Risk, volatility, and why dollar-cost averaging wins

Let's temper the above. Bitcoin isn't actually allergic to smooth sailing, but it might be easy to get that impression based on the risks it has faced and the steep price declines it has experienced historically.

A liquidity crunch, a regulatory swerve, or a plain old sentiment flip can slice prices in half very quickly -- and in the long run, it is guaranteed that such a plunge will happen again, even if it is subsequently very likely that a rebound occurs.

Spot ETFs make exits from the traditional financial sector quite frictionless, so any panic could snowball faster than in the past. Investors should also keep an eye on Washington, as a sudden about-face on crypto policy -- or a failure to follow through on the promises that the current administration made -- could discourage many institutional buyers.

Given those hazards, lump-sum bets can backfire.

A steady dollar-cost-averaging plan spreads purchases across upswings and sell-offs, lowering the odds that a single bad month leaves you under water. Historically, holding through at least one full four-year halving cycle has left patient investors with gains, but there have been stretches, even spanning several years, when paper losses were brutal.

Bitcoin's stars may be aligning to deliver gargantuan gains in the next few years, but the road from here to there might be more volatile than many expect.

Framing the 10-fold goal as "possible, not promised" should keep your emotions in check. Use position sizing you are comfortable with, keep dry powder for inevitable dips, and remember that compounding only works if you stay in the game.

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Alex Carchidi has positions in Bitcoin and iShares Bitcoin Trust. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Can a $10,000 Investment in Bitcoin Turn Into $100,000 by 2030? was originally published by The Motley Fool