Does ‘The Studio’ have what it takes to topple ‘Hacks’? Here’s what the data suggests

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After the announcement of the Emmy Awards nominations yesterday morning, The Studio was the toast of the town. With 23 nominations, the Seth Rogen-led industry send-up not only broke the record for the most nods in history for a freshman comedy, but tied The Bear's record for the most nominations for any season of a comedy.

Coming out of nominations morning, it may seem as though nothing can stop The Studio from claiming Best Comedy Series at the Emmys on Sept. 14 (and probably thanking Sal Saperstein).

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But Deborah Vance may have something to say about that.

The Studio's record breaking doesn't change the fact that Hacks is the reigning Best Comedy Series, a title it claimed for its third season after two previous nominations. It has been nominated again for the top prize, one of its 14 nominations — down just a tick from last year's 17. Among those nominations is yet another for lead actress Jean Smart, a six-time winner who has yet to miss a trophy for playing Deborah.

So with Hacks not showing many signs of weakness, is The Studio the powerhouse that its nominations total suggests it is?

Now, while the competition between the two series has only just begun, there is some data available that could suggest which way this match-up could go come Emmys night.

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Hacks led Gold Derby's predictions throughout the run-up to nominations, its odds for a nom as the reigning winner edging out the newbie, The Studio.

Comedy Series

Contender

Odds

1.

Hacks

Hacks

Winner

80.0%

2.

The Studio

The Studio

Winner

79.7%

3.

The Bear

The Bear

Winner

78.9%

That positioning has flipped, however, since the unveiling of nominations. In Gold Derby's ranking of the Best Comedy Series category, The Studio is currently the heavy favorite, sitting at 71 percent likelihood of winning over Hacks. The HBO Max original is ranked second with a not-insignificant 21 percent chance of winning.

Their closest competition is previous winner The Bear in a far-distant third with a 2.6 percent chance of reclaiming the prize at the time of publication.

Comedy Series

Contender

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Odds

1.

The Studio

The Studio

70.7%

2.

Hacks

Hacks

20.6%

3.

The Bear

The Bear

2.6%

But it's still early days for predictions, with nearly two months to go before the ceremony. So what does the history of the award say about The Studio's chances against Hacks? A look at the past five years paints one picture, and beyond that, another.

Before the Hacks win last year, The Bear swept in as the new kid on the block, a feat similar to the one pulled off by Ted Lasso (like The Studio, another another Apple TV+ comedy) two years earlier. The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel followed the same trajectory in 2018. So there is a recent trend of freshman shows winning the award, but a broader retrospective would favor Hacks.

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For most of the 2010s, exactly two shows — Modern Family and Veep — dominated the category. The former won five years in a row, while the latter immediately followed it with a hat trick. The Emmys have a history of landing on a favorite and sticking with it as long as the quality stays consistent. Could this be Hacks' path back to the podium?

Another perspective from which to view the main event is the down-ballot races, the acting categories in particular.

Laden with splash guest stars — most of whom played themselves — The Studio scored a total of 10 nominations across Actor (Rogen), Supporting Actor (Ike Barinholtz), Supporting Actress (Catherine O'Hara and Kathryn Hahn), Guest Actor (Bryan Cranston, Dave Franco, Ron Howard, Anthony Mackie, and Martin Scorsese), and Guest Actress (Zoë Kravitz).

Meanwhile, Hacks, in addition to Smart's third nomination, only managed to secure three other acting nods — Hannah Einbinder in Supporting Actress, along with Robby Hoffman and Julianne Nicholson in Guest Actress. The show had submitted a handful of other performances (Megan Stalter, Paul W. Downs, and Carl Clemons-Hopkins in Supporting and Kaitlin Olson, Jane Adams, Christopher McDonald, and Tony Goldwynn in Guest), but they came up short.

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With actors making up the largest voting bloc in the Television Academy, it's conceivable that such a stacked and highly nominated cast could push The Studio over the top.

A lot about the race for Best Comedy Series may be unclear at the moment, but it's certain that for fans of either show, the category will be one of the most entertaining to watch unfold.

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