Oscars: At 2025 Halfway Point, Only One Movie Released In Past Six Months Is Guaranteed A Best Picture Nomination – Which One Is It?

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As we hit the last day of June, it is time to take stock of where the race for the 98th Annual Academy Awards stands. I know they don’t happen until March 15, but it is never too early to start talking.

And it’s pretty simple. Six months into the year, exactly halfway done, only one movie released between New Year’s Day and now stands a 100%, surefire, absolutely guaranteed chance of being nominated for the Best Picture Oscar. I am only talking about films actually released, not those that played festivals like Sundance and Cannes and still awaiting release in the year’s second half.

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Wanna see which one it is? Here is the trailer:

Ryan Coogler’s Warner Bros. period film Sinners, starring Michael B. Jordan and released on April 18, blends gangster and vampire genres about two twin brothers returning from Chicago’s gangland wars to their small southern hometown in search of a new life. It is massively acclaimed by both critics (97% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes from 375 reviews) and audiences (on the RT popcorn meter at 96% positive). Grossing $278 million US/Canada and $364 million worldwide so far, it is that rarity of an original movie firing on all cylinders.

RELATED: ‘Sinners’ Review: Ryan Coogler & Two Michael B. Jordans Reteam For A Blues-Filled Vampire Movie Like No Other

With exquisite craftsmanship and superb acting, Sinners stands to rack up possibly double-digit nominations — at least at this point, where it has the field to itself — including Picture, Actor for Jordan, possible Supporting Actor for Delroy Lindo and/or Miles Caton, Supporting Actress for Hailee Steinfeld and/or the fabulous Wunmi Mosaku, Director and Original Screenplay for Coogler, Original Score, Song for “I Lied To You,” Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design, Editing, Sound, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects.

'Sinners'

It is not that unusual to have such a paucity of certain Best Picture contenders at the halfway point. Last year for example only the March 1 release Dune: Part Two (also from Warner Bros.) would land a Best Picture and four other nominations from 2024’s first half. It turned out also to be the only film to actually win Oscars from the first six months, for both its Sound and Visual Effects. In fact only two other films opening from January to June last year even got a single nomination: May’s Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes for Visual Effects and June’s Inside Out 2 for Animated Feature. No film that wasn’t a sequel landed any nomination for the period, and only Amazon MGM’s late-April release even mounted a major campaign other than Dune (but it got zero nominations for the effort). It would take until the opening of Cannes sensation The Substance on September 20 before a second of the eventual 10 nominees hit theaters.

So it’s rare to open outside of the accepted fall/holiday window and score big with the Academy, but that has been changing a bit lately when you consider the success of 2022’s March release Everything Everywhere All at Once, which used the SXSW festival as a launchpad and wound up winning seven Oscars including Best Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, Director and Original Screenplay one year later. The year before, Sundance sensation CODA had a very limited theatrical run and started streaming in August 2021 before going on to be the Best Picture winner. And 2023 was really an aberration as not only Celine Song’s Past Lives in June later earned a Best Picture nomination, but two famously same-day July 21 releases, Barbie and Oppenheimer aka Barbenheimer, would go on to glory with Best Picture nominations and the latter winning seven Oscars total. So you don’t always have to hold back until fall, but most distributors with Oscar-baity stuff do anyway.

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In terms of other first-half 2025 releases we have seen in theatres so far, I would say the best shot for Oscar recognition might be last weekend’s A24 opening of Eva Victor’s rapturously reviewed Sorry, Baby, which played both Sundance — where it won the Waldo Salt Screenwriting Award — and Cannes. Moonlight Oscar winner Barry Jenkins is a producer. Certainly at the very least, an Original Screenplay nomination is in order for Victor, who also could figure in the Best Actress race.

And on that front, another very small movie, like Victor’s a debut in the director’s chair for Sarah Friedland, also opened last weekend in limited arthouse release. Familiar Touch could figure in Lead Actress for Broadway star Kathleen Chalfant’s astounding and devastating turn as a woman slipping into dementia and sent to live out her days in a nursing home. The Music Box release could work its way into the Best Actress Oscar race if Actors branch members actually see it. Although the Academy seemed to make it more difficult to do, the kind of grassroots campaign that took hold for the similarly tiny movie, 2023’s To Leslie… — which would land Andrea Riseborough her first Best Actress nomination — would be the recipe for this one too. I hear they have money set aside for a campaign, so this little gem and Chalfant’s towering career achievement (it won her Best Actress among the film’s three awards in Venice’s Horizons competition last fall) might be one to watch from 2025’s first half.

'Familiar Touch' film

Hopefully there will be room for a number of other movies I really loved in the past six months, even if they didn’t make the kind of splash needed to carry them far into the next Oscar race. Chief among them is Steven Soderbergh’s smart and sophisticated spy marriage drama Black Bag with Michael Fassbender and Cate Blanchett. The Focus Features release is the director’s best in years. There is also a quartet of wonderfully human and humane movies that should not be forgotten (but sadly probably will be unless they get a monied campaign behind them) including the winner of last year’s prestigious Toronto People’s Choice winner — the Audience Award that almost always predicts an eventual Oscar nomination — The Life of Chuck from Neon; The Penguin Lessons with Steve Coogan from Sony Classics; the must-see Ballad of Wallis Island also from Focus; and the terrific Bleecker Street pickup out of Telluride The Friend, with splendid performances from Naomi Watts and Bing, her great Great Dane co-star.

'Black Bag' movie review

Celine Song’s current A24 hit romcomdram, Materialists could put her back in play, at least for her Original Screenplay, though there doesn’t seem to be the same kind of Past Lives awards buzz, even though I think it is deserving. And so is its cast Dakota Johnson, Pedro Pascal and Chris Evans. A24 has a lot on its plate, however, so it might be a big mountain to climb to keep it front of mind beyond the summer. The same might be said of Apple’s first big blockbuster hit (released thru Warner Bros,), the audience-friendly F1 with Brad Pitt. It doesn’t appear to be Best Picture fodder, but its huge success this weekend could change that, just as it did for the same team’s (director Joseph Kosinski and producer Jerry Bruckheimer) eventual Best Picture nominee, Top Gun: Maverick. Don’t count it out. I would bet the farm, though, it will be a major contender for nominations and potential wins for Sound and Editing Oscars, just as past car race epics like Ford v Ferrari and Grand Prix have won.

FI: The Movie Global and International Box Office Opening

That’s about it. Of course I have reviewed and written extensively about films seen at Cannes and Sundance, and you can bet on some of them being in the race for sure once they do get released in the year’s second half.

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In terms of what you can see in theaters or streaming the first half of 2025, though, belongs squarely to Sinners. Take it to the bank.

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