NBA Finals Game 4: Best Bets and Predictions for Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
The Indiana Pacers continued their impressive postseason run against the spread, defeating the Oklahoma City Thunder 116-107 in Game 3 of the NBA Finals on Wednesday night as 5.5-point home underdogs. The Thunder are now 0-8 ATS on the road in the 2025 playoffs, and despite being huge -700 favorites at BetMGM before the series began, Oklahoma City found themselves down 2-1 in the series after three games. However, they remain the -250 favorite to win the series at BetMGM, with Indiana a +200 underdog. In Game 4, Oklahoma City is a 6.5-point road favorite with a total of 226.5 points, the biggest spread for any road favorite since at least the 1991 Finals. Yahoo Sports asked handicapper Jon Metler for his thoughts on some best bets for Game 4 of the Finals. Metler noted that all eyes were on Bennedict Mathurin in Game 3, but Obi Toppin's performance in Game 1 should not be forgotten. Toppin scored 17 points in Game 1 after knocking down five triples against the Thunder, and although he only scored eight points in Game 3 without hitting a 3-pointer, his athleticism has served him well against the Thunder defense. Metler believes the over 9.5 points for Toppin should be trading closer to -195 than even money. Another bet Metler recommends is on Aaron Nesmith over 0.5 assists at +110. Nesmith has only one assist in the series so far, but he's averaging 2.7 potential assists per game. Even if he sees limited minutes in Game 4, there's still a solid edge on this prop, and Metler thinks Nesmith should be trading closer to -180 for Over 0.5 assists in Game 4. Finally, Metler notes that Mark Daigneault has moved away from the double-big lineup in the NBA Finals, and Isaiah Hartenstein is now priced like a player who will play fewer than 20 minutes in Game 4. However, even if Hartenstein only plays 18 minutes, there's still value on this prop. As Myles Turner continues to bully Chet Holmgren in the paint, who's to say Hartenstein doesn't start stealing some of Holmgren's minutes? Metler believes Hartenstein's 2+ assists should be trading closer to -190, creating a clear probability gap we can exploit.
