Why Trump's 'July 9' tariff deadline appears to be more like Aug. 1 (or even Labor Day)

President Trump's trade plans are likely to be significantly clearer by the end of this week, with the president announcing that "UNITED STATES TARIFF Letters" will begin being delivered at 12 noon ET today and his team promising several new agreements by the end of the week.

But an array of parallel comments from the president on down have also underlined to markets that this week is unlikely to provide finality on the Trump trade agenda.

That's because even as Trump talks about being largely "done" on July 9, trade talks appear primed to continue unabated in the weeks ahead as his team acknowledges that ambitious early plans to finalize a wide array of trade deals around the world by this week haven't panned out.

"The financial markets, understandably, may be confused," Greg Valliere of AGF Investments noted in a letter to clients, adding: "Get used to this."

The back-and-forth comes as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent promised Monday on CNBC that several trade deals will be announced in the next 48 hours, saying, "We've had a lot of people change their tune in terms of negotiations."

Other countries that are further from a deal could see unilateral tariff hikes, but they appear to have additional weeks to negotiate before any duties actually change on Aug. 1.

Trump revealed this new Aug. 1 deadline last week. "They'll start to pay on Aug. 1," he told reporters Friday of his still-to-be-unveiled letters. "The money will start to come into the United States on Aug. 1."

Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

The situation is similar as negotiations with major trading partners continued, and those negotiations are primed to see some combination of a letter or a deal this week — but again, with finality unlikely.

At least one Trump aide offered a signal on Sunday that talks won't be ending. Stephen Miran, chair of Trump's Council of Economic Advisers, said on ABC's "This Week" that if a country is negotiating in good faith, "but the deal is just not there yet because it needs more time, my expectation would be that those countries get the date rolled."

Other aides have offered similar messages, with Secretary Bessent previously talking about having trade issues "wrapped up by Labor Day" and Trump reminding that "we can do whatever we want."

And Trump has continued to bring other issues into the trade talks, such as an announcement Monday morning that he planned to use a 10% tariff to dissuade nations from lining up against him through an intergovernmental organization comprising 10 countries known as BRICS.

What it means for markets

The push for deals this week also comes after Trump has scored a series of wins in recent weeks that could strengthen his hand. They range from signing his megabill into law to muted signs of tariff inflation thus far to increased influence overseas that led to a recent spending hike at NATO.

But trade has proved more difficult. Trump has announced framework agreements so far with the likes of the UK and Vietnam, but other deals with key trading partners such as the European Union, India, Japan, and others are very much up in the air.

Trump has lessened tensions with China, and negotiations between the world's two largest economies are now facing a separate early August deadline.

As for what it means for markets, the effects of continued uncertainty could be muted. Capital Economics' Thomas Mathews wrote Monday morning that "despite the uncertainty about tariffs, we continue to expect US markets — especially equities and the dollar — to rally."

The economic effects of tariffs — so far, at least — have proven less dramatic on inflation. And traders have become less reactive to Trump's trade pronouncements, noting he has proven to blink in the face of economic turmoil and often changes his mind later anyway.

As Edward Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, put it in a recent note: "In recent weeks, many investors bought stocks as they stopped panicking over Trump's trade war."

This story has been updated with additional developments. Correction: A previous version of this article misspelled the name of Capital Economics' Thomas Mathews. We regret the error.

Ben Werschkul is a Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.

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