Is this year's E3 going to be the Battle of the Slightly Upgraded Consoles?
Xbox chief Phil Spencer set off a flurry of speculation last month at an Xbox media event when he said that Microsoft would "come out with new hardware capability during a generation allowing the same games to run backward and forward compatible," allowing Xbox to "focus more and more on hardware innovation without invalidating the games that run on that platform."
Then, coming out of last week's Game Developers Conference, Kotaku reported that Sony is in development on something of a "PlayStation 4.5," which would be an upgraded PS4 that supports 4K resolution and boasts increased processing power that could allow Sony to create better-looking games on PlayStation VR.
It's firmly within the realm of probability that we could see a PlayStation 4.5, or an Xbox One and a Half, at or before this year's E3 Expo in June. This would be a pretty big shakeup to the console paradigm (which I've long argued has a fast-approaching expiration date on it). If it happens, it could all be because (if I may quote Spinal Tap) consoles' appeal is becoming more selective.
"Part of the reason for this move is, I think, a general lack of confidence that there is the same number of people in the world who want to buy dedicated games hardware as there have been in the past," said Ben Cousins, a veteran game developer who has written and spoken extensively on gaming's future, in an email. "While I think there will always be an audience of a certain size for consoles, it might not be as big as it was in the past, because the 'I buy a console when it's $99 and only play Madden on it' audience may have moved over to mobile gaming."
In other words, Cousins says, releasing slightly upgraded consoles might be a tactic to sell more consoles to fewer people. It's all about increasing ARPU---average revenue per user, the amount of money you get from a single customer. Console makers do this with software by selling DLC, a subscription, or a collector's edition, he says, and releasing console upgrades could have the same effect on the hardware side.
"If they can communicate to consumers a strong reason for the upgrade... then they could generate a lot more income without having to grow the overall market for consoles," he says.
